Will “Russia / Russian” be said on Face the Nation next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Russia / Russian” was said on Face the Nation in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Face the Nation
Russia / Russian
- Probability
- 41% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted; 7 by speakers the rule does not count.
…called it a homework assignment that he gave me, number one, the Russian sanctions bill, number two, air defense to protect against exactly the kind…
…to crack down on the shadow fleet. And it has tariff authority, but narrowly constrained to the five largest purchasers of Russian oil and gas.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Russia / Russian |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Russia / Russian | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often is “Russia / Russian” said on Face the Nation?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Russia / Russian” was said on Face the Nation in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026.
- What is the probability “Russia / Russian” is said on Face the Nation next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Face the Nation: ‘Russia / Russian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/face-the-nation/words/russia-or-russian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=face-the-nation&word=russia%20%2F%20russian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=face-the-nation&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP