Will “Hot / Heat” appear on the next NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hot / Heat” appeared on the NYT front page on 2 of 4 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 16, 2026 (50%), most recently on Sep 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 3.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceThe New York Times (front page)
Hot / Heat
- Probability
- 46% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 front pages
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
1 counted.
Heat Changes Italian Attitudes Trillionaire Opens War Chest
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Hot / Heat |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Hot / Heat | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Hot / Heat | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Hot / Heat | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does “Hot / Heat” appear on the NYT front page?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hot / Heat” appeared on the NYT front page on 2 of 4 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 16, 2026 (50%), most recently on Sep 4, 2026.
- What is the probability “Hot / Heat” appears on the NYT front page next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Hot / Heat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/heat-or-hot (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=heat%20%2F%20hot · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP