United Airlines (UAL): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Jul 16, 2026
On its Jul 16, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), United Airlines said 15 of the 33 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 33 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
33 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 33 of 33- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel / Oil | Yes | 43 | 43 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 1:48, Fuel / Oil | – |
| Margin | Yes | 22 | 22 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 11:34, Margin | – |
| Revenue 10+ times | Yes | 22 | 22 | ✓ | 78%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 1:45, Revenue 10+ times | – |
| Morning | Yes | 17 | 17 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 0:07, Morning | – |
| Demand | Yes | 15 | 15 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 3:07, Demand | – |
| Loyalty / MileagePlus | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 1:41, Loyalty / MileagePlus | – |
| Starlink | Yes | 9 | 12 | ✓ | 88%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:56, Starlink | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 2:41, Inflation | – |
| Oil | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 51%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 15:50, Oil | – |
| Record | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 80%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 8:21, Record | – |
| Newark | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:01, Newark | – |
| Statement | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 75%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 0:22, Statement | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 59%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 18:20, Middle East | – |
| Relax Row | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 47%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 11:39, Relax Row | – |
| Internet | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 37:05, Internet | – |
| Passenger 10+ times | No | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 12%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 4:32, Passenger 10+ times | – |
| Boeing | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 86%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 76%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Disruption | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 72%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Budget | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Weather | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 61%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Red Eye | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| ATC / Air Traffic Control | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Holiday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Union | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 27%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| JetBlue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Canada | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Democratize | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Footprint | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| American Airlines | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Nonstop / Non-Stop | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
12 matches for “Starlink”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…shocks events. I can already see and hear from customers that getting Starlink on all our aircraft is going to be a step function increase…
…second quarter Net Promoter Score since the pandemic in the second quarter. Starlink is another example of how we are investing in a better customer…
Early customer feedback has been very strong. Wi-Fi satisfaction scores on Starlink equipment are more than double the scores of other Wi-Fi operating aircraft. On…
…the horizon completion of key aircraft modification programs, including fast and free Starlink Wi-Fi, seatback entertainment, larger overhead bins, and our refreshed onboard branding. Our…
…so much. Maybe just to start it off, can you talk about Starlink? You've now installed it on 450 aircraft out of your 1,000 aircraft…
Where the listed words were said
…with second quarter revenues up 16%, recovering about half the increase in fuel price for the period. The significant increase in fuel in just the…
…2027. New fleet and product initiatives position the business for RASM and margin gains in 2027 and beyond, and we're particularly excited to get Relax…
…the entire United team for delivering for our customers and each other. With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew to discuss the revenue environment.
Thank you, Regina. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available…
…The impact of structural changes are just now beginning to be felt. Demand remains robust as we expect both 3Q and 4Q RASM to grow…
…the way with PRASM up 14%, Atlantic up 12.1%, and Latin up 10.7%. Cargo revenues were also strong, up 22.6%. Loyalty revenue was up 11.3%.
…from the local customers, and it's been the right strategy. I think Starlink is probably going to be the biggest of everything that we've done.…
…Perhaps the most important structural change in the industry has been the significant inflation and harmonization in non-fuel costs like airport fees, labor, and maintenance.
Given the recent run-up in oil, we felt it prudent to adjust our outlook to reflect the current environment. For the full year, we are…
Jamie, thanks for the question, and look, we have a track record, and we're going to maintain that of being proactive. We are right on…
…also had our lowest second quarter seat cancellation rate in company history. Notably, we saw meaningful improvements at our Newark hub, our busiest global gateway.
Chris, I do want to pile on Andrew's statements, just philosophically. We at United are driving towards margins in cash flow generation, and we're going…
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