United Airlines (UAL): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Jul 16, 2026
On its Jul 16, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), United Airlines said 15 of the 33 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 33 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
33 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 33 of 33- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel / Oil | Yes | 43 | 43 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 1:48, Fuel / Oil | – |
| Margin | Yes | 22 | 22 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 11:34, Margin | – |
| Revenue 10+ times | Yes | 22 | 22 | ✓ | 78%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 1:45, Revenue 10+ times | – |
| Morning | Yes | 17 | 17 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 0:07, Morning | – |
| Demand | Yes | 15 | 15 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 3:07, Demand | – |
| Loyalty / MileagePlus | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 1:41, Loyalty / MileagePlus | – |
| Starlink | Yes | 9 | 12 | ✓ | 88%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:56, Starlink | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 2:41, Inflation | – |
| Oil | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 51%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 15:50, Oil | – |
| Record | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 80%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 8:21, Record | – |
| Newark | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:01, Newark | – |
| Statement | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 75%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 0:22, Statement | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 59%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 18:20, Middle East | – |
| Relax Row | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 47%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 11:39, Relax Row | – |
| Internet | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 37:05, Internet | – |
| Passenger 10+ times | No | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 12%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 4:32, Passenger 10+ times | – |
| Boeing | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 86%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 76%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Disruption | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 72%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Budget | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Weather | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 61%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Red Eye | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| ATC / Air Traffic Control | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Holiday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Union | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 27%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| JetBlue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Canada | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Democratize | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Footprint | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| American Airlines | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Nonstop / Non-Stop | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
22 matches for “Revenue”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…brand loyalty is evident in our strong top-line performance with second quarter revenues up 16%, recovering about half the increase in fuel price for the…
…the entire United team for delivering for our customers and each other. With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew to discuss the revenue environment.
…the rest of 2026 validates our commercial plans are working well. United's revenue accelerated across the board in Q2 with total operating revenue up 16%…
…demand from higher price points, a trend we see continuing. Domestic passenger revenue was up 20.3% with PRASM up 12.2%. International PRASM was also up…
…the largest increase in membership in Chicago and in New York. Premium revenues were up 16.4% and premium PRASM up 11.6% in the quarter. PRASM…
Where the listed words were said
Fuel's gone up a lot in the last week. We've decided to once again be a leader by changing our guidance policy on fuel. We…
…2027. New fleet and product initiatives position the business for RASM and margin gains in 2027 and beyond, and we're particularly excited to get Relax…
…7%. Close-in business travel was exceptionally strong in Q2, with contracted business revenues flown up an impressive 27% year-over-year, and book-ins up 30%, led by…
Thank you, Regina. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available…
…The impact of structural changes are just now beginning to be felt. Demand remains robust as we expect both 3Q and 4Q RASM to grow…
…seen across the board and the corresponding financial results. The more brand loyalty we have, the stronger we expect our earnings will be during good…
…second quarter Net Promoter Score since the pandemic in the second quarter. Starlink is another example of how we are investing in a better customer…
…Perhaps the most important structural change in the industry has been the significant inflation and harmonization in non-fuel costs like airport fees, labor, and maintenance.
Given the recent run-up in oil, we felt it prudent to adjust our outlook to reflect the current environment. For the full year, we are…
Jamie, thanks for the question, and look, we have a track record, and we're going to maintain that of being proactive. We are right on…
…also had our lowest second quarter seat cancellation rate in company history. Notably, we saw meaningful improvements at our Newark hub, our busiest global gateway.
Chris, I do want to pile on Andrew's statements, just philosophically. We at United are driving towards margins in cash flow generation, and we're going…
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