Elon Musk: Posts, week ending Jul 5, 2026
In the week ending Jul 5, 2026, Elon Musk posted 6 of the 17 words Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | Yes | ≈15 | 15 | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Neuralink | Yes | ≈3 | 4 | 9%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Never | Yes | ≈2 | 2 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Always | Yes | ≈1 | 1 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Texas | Yes | ≈1 | 1 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Video game / Videogame | Yes | ≈0 | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Claude | No | ≈1 | 1 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | ≈1 | 1 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | ≈0 | 0 | 17%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT | No | ≈0 | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Football | No | ≈0 | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| IPO | No | ≈0 | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Knicks | No | ≈0 | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| President | No | ≈0 | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Soccer | No | ≈0 | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | ≈0 | 0 | 8%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | ≈0 | 0 | 8%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Posts
counts only; post text is not shownPosts by @elonmusk on X, via Polymarket's XTracker (reposts included: counts are approximate) · The posts
Counted from 158 posts by @elonmusk, Jun 29, 2026 to Jul 5, 2026. XTracker does not flag reposts or quotes, so other accounts' text is included: these counts are approximate. Post text is used for counting only and is not reproduced here.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/elon-musk:2026-07-05:posts_window · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=elon-musk:2026-07-05:posts_window · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP