Toll Brothers (TOL): FY26 Q2 earnings call, May 20, 2026
On its May 20, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Toll Brothers said 6 of the 11 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 11 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
11 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 11- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffington / Arkansas | Yes | 9 | 13 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Lumber | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Apartment | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 78%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Dividend | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Customize / Customization | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| California | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tailwind | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 67%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Millennial | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Buyback | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Headwind | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 43%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
5 matches for “Spec Home”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…also benefiting from the breadth of our offerings, which is the widest in the industry and includes a balanced mix of built-to-order and spec homes.
…25% of our average base sales price. Given our focus on selling spec homes earlier in the construction process, I'm pleased to report that in…
…cycle time improved to approximately nine months. The cycle time for our spec homes is generally about one month shorter than build-to-order homes. Overall, our…
…a greater concentration in our fourth quarter of higher-margin move-up luxury and spec homes sold earlier in the construction cycle relative to our third quarter.…
Where the listed words were said
…year with 480-490 selling communities, including the communities we acquired in the Buffington Homes transaction, which closed earlier this month. We plan to grow community…
…implied, down in a lot of circumstances to offset some of the lumber prices. We've seen very modest impacts, if any, from tariffs. We are…
…Included in our second half projection is the sale of several stabilized apartment projects. We project a third quarter tax rate to be approximately 26.0%,…
…our year-to-date total to approximately $226 million, and we raised our quarterly dividend. We continue to target $650 million of share repurchases in fiscal 2026.…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/toll-brothers:2026-05-20:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=toll-brothers:2026-05-20:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP