Will Toll Brothers say “Tariff”?

Toll Brothers did not say “Tariff” on its Aug 19, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 6 of its last 8 calls: 2, 1, 4, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Toll Brothers said “Tariff” on 1 of 2 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 20, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=2, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.

43%from settlement history blended with transcripts · n=2counts: company speakers + operator
Last 10
1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
company speakers + operator
Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Toll Brothers

Tariff

Probability
43% · n=2
Settled
1/2 (50%)
Last calls
said in 6 of 8

Next listing counts: company speakers + operator

FY26 Q3 earnings call, Aug 19, 2026 · not said

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FY26 Q2 earnings call, May 20, 2026 · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator

1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).

Karl MistrycompanyqaIn transcript

…of the lumber prices. We've seen very modest impacts, if any, from tariffs. We are hearing about some of the oil and fuel surcharges, but…

FY26 Q1 earnings call, Feb 18, 2026 · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)

1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.

Douglas YearleycompanyqaIn transcript

Alan, we are not seeing the impact from tariffs. We -- on the good news, we're seeing plenty of availability of labor, more and more…

Alan RatneranalystqaIn transcript

…cost relief that builders were able to see in spite of the tariffs. I'm curious how you see the labor environment today? We have seen…

Not counted under the usual rule (company speakers + operator); this word was not listed here.

FY25 Q4 earnings call, Dec 9, 2025 · not said

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FY25 Q3 earnings call, Aug 20, 2025 · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)

1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).

Douglas C. YearleycompanypreparedIn transcript

…Overall, we have not seen any significant impact on build costs from tariffs, and we do not expect to see any this fiscal year. In…

FY25 Q2 earnings call, May 21, 2025 · said 4 times (counts)

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FY25 Q1 earnings call, Feb 19, 2025 · said 1 time (counts)

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FY24 Q4 earnings call, Dec 10, 2024 · said 2 times (counts)

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Aug 19, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
May 20, 2026TariffKalshiYes1

Questions

How many times did Toll Brothers say “Tariff” on its last earnings call?
Toll Brothers did not say “Tariff” on its Aug 19, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 6 of its last 8 calls: 2, 1, 4, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0 times.
How often does Toll Brothers say “Tariff”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Toll Brothers said “Tariff” on 1 of 2 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 20, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 20, 2026.
What is the probability Toll Brothers says “Tariff” next time?
43%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.

Cite parrot.markets, “Toll Brothers: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TOL/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=toll-brothers&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=toll-brothers&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP