Toll Brothers (TOL): FY26 Q2 earnings call, May 20, 2026
On its May 20, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Toll Brothers said 6 of the 11 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 11 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
11 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 11- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffington / Arkansas | Yes | 9 | 13 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Lumber | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Apartment | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 78%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Dividend | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Customize / Customization | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| California | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tailwind | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 67%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Millennial | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Buyback | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Headwind | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 43%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
15 matches for “Incentive”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…to a challenging demand environment with discipline, effectively balancing pace, price, and incentives to drive sales while maximizing returns. We are, quite simply, a more…
…As Doug mentioned, in the quarter, we continued to operate with discipline, effectively balancing sales pace, price, and incentives to drive sales while maximizing returns.
Incentives are generally lower on specs that are sold earlier, and there is greater opportunity for our customers to visit our design studios and personalize…
…versus what you've previously seen, and if there is any difference in incentives assumed, or if you're just assuming incentives on specs hold flat through…
Awesome. Thanks so much, guys. I wanted to touch on the incentive bucket first. Obviously done quite well keeping that at 8% for the past…
Where the listed words were said
…year with 480-490 selling communities, including the communities we acquired in the Buffington Homes transaction, which closed earlier this month. We plan to grow community…
…building costs remained flat in the quarter, even with the cost of lumber rising in the period. Turning to land, at second quarter end, we…
…Included in our second half projection is the sale of several stabilized apartment projects. We project a third quarter tax rate to be approximately 26.0%,…
…of the lumber prices. We've seen very modest impacts, if any, from tariffs. We are hearing about some of the oil and fuel surcharges, but…
…our year-to-date total to approximately $226 million, and we raised our quarterly dividend. We continue to target $650 million of share repurchases in fiscal 2026.…
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