Toll Brothers (TOL): FY26 Q2 earnings call, May 20, 2026
On its May 20, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Toll Brothers said 6 of the 11 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 11 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
11 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 11- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffington / Arkansas | Yes | 9 | 13 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Lumber | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Apartment | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 78%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Dividend | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Customize / Customization | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| California | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tailwind | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 67%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Millennial | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Buyback | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Headwind | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 43%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
8 matches for “Florida”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…community sales pace flat, and maintain our margins in the quarter. Geographically, Florida was a bright spot in the quarter, with improved demand in all…
…favorable mix out of our Pacific region, better than expected performance in Florida, and a greater contribution from our luxury move-up business. We signed 2,834…
Our gross margin benefited from the favorable mix from our Pacific region, Florida, and our luxury move-up business that I mentioned earlier, as well as…
…bit more on a couple of call-outs you made in Austin and Florida being some of your relative bright spots in the quarter. Those are…
…positioning or communities or pricing strategy, or do you feel like both Florida and Austin might have hit an inflection point from a broader market…
Where the listed words were said
…year with 480-490 selling communities, including the communities we acquired in the Buffington Homes transaction, which closed earlier this month. We plan to grow community…
…building costs remained flat in the quarter, even with the cost of lumber rising in the period. Turning to land, at second quarter end, we…
…Included in our second half projection is the sale of several stabilized apartment projects. We project a third quarter tax rate to be approximately 26.0%,…
…of the lumber prices. We've seen very modest impacts, if any, from tariffs. We are hearing about some of the oil and fuel surcharges, but…
…our year-to-date total to approximately $226 million, and we raised our quarterly dividend. We continue to target $650 million of share repurchases in fiscal 2026.…
…personalize their homes with finishes that match their tastes. The ability to customize remains an important competitive advantage for Toll Brothers, as design studio upgrades…
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