Face the Nation (CBS), May 10, 2026
On the May 10, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 3 of the 11 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 11 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
11 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 11- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 15 | 21 | ✓ | 66%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 3 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 1 | 23 | ✓ | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Russia | No | 0 | 18 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Domestic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
8 matches for “Hormuz”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…knots by the conflict with Iran, as ships in the Strait of Hormuz remain at a standstill. Awaiting a response to the latest U.S. offer…
With critical energy trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz still near frozen, gas prices continue their march higher. We will ask Energy Secretary Chris…
…the day, we'll have free flow of traffic through the Straits of Hormuz, and we will have an end to the Iranian nuclear program. The…
…all other ship traffic through the Gulf. So there's two ways the Hormuz thing can end. One is – just like with the nuclear thing,…
…out is a great message to Iran that, one way or another, we will reestablish free flow of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Where the listed words were said
…five weeks to achieve. Those are achieved. The ending of the Iranian nuclear program is a different matter. And that's what still needs to be…
…government in the country losing their main export revenues because of our blockade, but also Economic – our Economic Fury operation that we launched starting…
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