Vlad Tenev: Robinhood keynote, Dec 17, 2025
At the keynote on Dec 17, 2025, Vlad Tenev said 3 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport | Yes | 8 | 18 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Acquisition / Acquired | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kalshi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Innovation / Innovate | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SIG / Susquehanna | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tokenization / Tokenized | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Retirement | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockchain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · Robinhood (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
1 match for “Crypto”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…all these different markets, not to mention all the stocks, options, and cryptos that are already available on Robin Hood. That's where Robin Hood Cortex…
Where the listed words were said
…one of over 1,500 prediction markets live on Robin Hood today. Across sports, entertainment, and world affairs. In less than a year, there have already…
…most clearly in the market that started it all, the 2024 presidential election. We offer a much wider array of political contracts today. So even…
…about other exogenous factors that may affect the stock price. Warner Brothers acquisition is another great example that's happening right now. But the thing about…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/vlad-tenev:2025-12-17:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=vlad-tenev:2025-12-17:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP