Microsoft (MSFT): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Oct 29, 2025
On its Oct 29, 2025 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Microsoft said 13 of the 17 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 51 | 54 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Copilot | Yes | 42 | 42 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| M365 / Microsoft 365 | Yes | 29 | 29 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cloud | Yes | 26 | 26 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Azure | Yes | 23 | 25 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 18 | 21 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Windows | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Server | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Teams | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 92%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Gaming | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| CapEx | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 75%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Phi | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Activision | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cybersecurity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stargate | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
6 matches for “Teams”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…and agentic workflows into everyday tools like Outlook, Word, Excel, PowerPoint and Teams. Just 9 months since release, tens of millions of users across Microsoft…
…benchmarks that rank it best-in-class. Beyond individual productivity, Copilot is multiplayer, with Teams mode announced this week, you can now invite colleagues into a Copilot…
…demand, growing first-party apps at AI solutions, accelerating R&D by our product teams as well as continued replacement for end-of-life server and networking equipment. The…
…mentioned maybe as much before is also just making sure our product teams and the AI talent that we've been able to hire into the…
…so we are making that a priority to make sure our research teams have that as well as our product engineering teams. And yes, it…
Where the listed words were said
…only 2 years. We are seeing increasing demand and diffusion of our AI platform and family of Copilots, which is fueling our investments across both…
…of customers and countries. We are innovating rapidly across the family of Copilots spanning the high-value domains of information work, coding, security, science, health and…
…anyone create and deploy task-specific apps and agents in minutes grounded in Microsoft 365 context. All this innovation is driving our momentum. Customers continue to…
…sovereignty platform. Azure customers in 33 countries are now developing their own cloud and AI capabilities within their borders to meet local data residency requirements.…
…roughly 10x-ed our investment. OpenAI has contracted an incremental $250 billion of Azure services, our rev share, exclusive IP rights and API exclusivity for Azure…
…11,000 models more than any other vendor, including as of this quarter, OpenAI's GPT-5 as well as xAI's Grok 4. For example, Ralph Lauren used…
…we are excited about all the progress Copilot is making, starting with Windows. Every Windows 11 PC now is an AI PC. Just 2 weeks…
…across workloads, even as we brought more capacity online. In our on-premise server business, revenue increased 1% and was relatively unchanged in constant currency. Results…
…and we took share across all categories we serve in security. In LinkedIn, nearly 1.3 billion members. And finally, in gaming, we expanded our reach…
…bring their own AI to work in a secure way. Finally, in gaming, Copilot provides a voice-first immersive experience across PC, mobile and our new…
…for PP&E was $19.4 billion. As a reminder, the difference between total CapEx and cash paid for PP&E is primarily due to finance leases as…
…industry leader boards. And we continue to make great progress with our Phi family of SLMs, which now have been downloaded over 60 million times,…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/microsoft:2025-10-29:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=microsoft:2025-10-29:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP