Will Microsoft say “OpenAI”?
Microsoft said “OpenAI” 14 times on its Jul 29, 2026 call (FY26 Q4), and on each of its last 8 calls: 11, 13, 4, 4, 18, 14, 12, 14 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Microsoft said “OpenAI” at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 30, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 69% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 6/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 38¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Microsoft
OpenAI
- Probability
- 69% · n=6
- Settled
- 6/6 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: company speakers + operator
14 counted (14 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…the latest generation hardware in our fleet and is now supporting both OpenAI and MAI models. And we will be among the first cloud providers…
…first-party workloads as well as workloads for customers, including Adobe, Arm, Elastic, OpenAI, Sprinklr, and TomTom. By the end of this month, we expect to…
Counts: company speakers + operator
12 counted (11 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…so customers can choose the right model for the right workload across OpenAI, Anthropic, open source, and more. Over 10,000 customers have used more than…
…and WPP for the first time through Foundry. We are innovating on OpenAI IP to drive product evals and lower cogs. Two recent examples of…
Counts: company speakers + operator
14 counted (13 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…we were able to achieve in one of our highest volume workloads, OpenAI inferencing, powering our co-pilots. And another example was the unlocking of new…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | OpenAI |  Kalshi | Yes | 14 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | OpenAI | Kalshi | Yes | 12 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | OpenAI | Kalshi | Yes | 14 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | OpenAI |  Polymarket | Yes | 21 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | OpenAI | Kalshi | Yes | 18 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | OpenAI | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | OpenAI | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | OpenAI | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
Questions
- How many times did Microsoft say “OpenAI” on its last earnings call?
- Microsoft said “OpenAI” 14 times on its Jul 29, 2026 call (FY26 Q4), and on each of its last 8 calls: 11, 13, 4, 4, 18, 14, 12, 14 times.
- How often does Microsoft say “OpenAI”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Microsoft said “OpenAI” at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 30, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026.
- What is the probability Microsoft says “OpenAI” next time?
- 69%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Microsoft: ‘OpenAI’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/MSFT/words/openai (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=microsoft&word=openai · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=microsoft&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP