Microsoft (MSFT): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Oct 29, 2025
On its Oct 29, 2025 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Microsoft said 13 of the 17 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 51 | 54 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Copilot | Yes | 42 | 42 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| M365 / Microsoft 365 | Yes | 29 | 29 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cloud | Yes | 26 | 26 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Azure | Yes | 23 | 25 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 18 | 21 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Windows | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Server | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Teams | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 92%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Gaming | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| CapEx | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 75%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Phi | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Activision | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cybersecurity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stargate | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
26 matches for “Cloud”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Jonathan. It was a very strong start to our fiscal year. Microsoft Cloud revenue surpassed $49 billion, up 26% year-over-year. And our commercial RPO increased…
…and talent. When it comes to infrastructure, we're building a planet scale cloud and an AI factory, maximizing tokens per dollar per watt while supporting…
…sovereignty platform. Azure customers in 33 countries are now developing their own cloud and AI capabilities within their borders to meet local data residency requirements.…
…Copilots and AI platform, we are seeing strong momentum across the portfolio. Cloud migrations are accelerating. In data and analytics, Fabric revenue grew 60%, which…
…and set new records for players on PC. In closing, our planet-scale Cloud and AI factory together with Copilots across high-value domains is driving broad…
Where the listed words were said
…rights through 2032. And we are also energized to innovate and pursue AI advancements with both talent and compute investments that have real-world impact. With…
…of our AI features across our products. And our first-party family of Copilots now has surpassed 150 million monthly active users across the information work,…
…Teams. Just 9 months since release, tens of millions of users across Microsoft 365 customer base are already using chat. Adoption is accelerating rapidly, growing…
…partially offset by ongoing efficiency gains, particularly in Azure and M365 Commercial cloud. Operating expenses increased 5% and 4% in constant currency, driven by investments…
…spend was on short-lived assets, primarily GPUs and CPUs, to support increasing Azure platform demand, growing first-party apps at AI solutions, accelerating R&D by our…
…And as you saw yesterday, we closed a new definitive agreement with OpenAI, marking the next chapter in what is one of the most successful…
…we are excited about all the progress Copilot is making, starting with Windows. Every Windows 11 PC now is an AI PC. Just 2 weeks…
…across workloads, even as we brought more capacity online. In our on-premise server business, revenue increased 1% and was relatively unchanged in constant currency. Results…
…benchmarks that rank it best-in-class. Beyond individual productivity, Copilot is multiplayer, with Teams mode announced this week, you can now invite colleagues into a Copilot…
…and we took share across all categories we serve in security. In LinkedIn, nearly 1.3 billion members. And finally, in gaming, we expanded our reach…
…continued benefit from third-party partnerships that was better than expected. And in gaming, revenue decreased 2% and 3% in constant currency against a strong prior…
…for PP&E was $19.4 billion. As a reminder, the difference between total CapEx and cash paid for PP&E is primarily due to finance leases as…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/microsoft:2025-10-29:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=microsoft:2025-10-29:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP