Microsoft (MSFT): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Oct 29, 2025
On its Oct 29, 2025 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Microsoft said 13 of the 17 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 51 | 54 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Copilot | Yes | 42 | 42 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| M365 / Microsoft 365 | Yes | 29 | 29 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cloud | Yes | 26 | 26 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Azure | Yes | 23 | 25 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 18 | 21 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Windows | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Server | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Teams | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 92%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Gaming | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| CapEx | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 75%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Phi | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Activision | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cybersecurity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stargate | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
2 matches for “CapEx”; 2 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…for PP&E was $19.4 billion. As a reminder, the difference between total CapEx and cash paid for PP&E is primarily due to finance leases as…
…33% to $25.7 billion with minimal impact from a sequential increase in CapEx, given the higher mix of finance leases. And finally, we returned $10.7…
Where the listed words were said
…only 2 years. We are seeing increasing demand and diffusion of our AI platform and family of Copilots, which is fueling our investments across both…
…of customers and countries. We are innovating rapidly across the family of Copilots spanning the high-value domains of information work, coding, security, science, health and…
…consumer. When it comes to information work, we continue to innovate with Microsoft 365 Copilot. Copilot is becoming the UI for the agentic AI experience.…
…sovereignty platform. Azure customers in 33 countries are now developing their own cloud and AI capabilities within their borders to meet local data residency requirements.…
…roughly 10x-ed our investment. OpenAI has contracted an incremental $250 billion of Azure services, our rev share, exclusive IP rights and API exclusivity for Azure…
…11,000 models more than any other vendor, including as of this quarter, OpenAI's GPT-5 as well as xAI's Grok 4. For example, Ralph Lauren used…
…we are excited about all the progress Copilot is making, starting with Windows. Every Windows 11 PC now is an AI PC. Just 2 weeks…
…R&D by our product teams as well as continued replacement for end-of-life server and networking equipment. The remaining spend was for long-lived assets that will…
…benchmarks that rank it best-in-class. Beyond individual productivity, Copilot is multiplayer, with Teams mode announced this week, you can now invite colleagues into a Copilot…
…and we took share across all categories we serve in security. In LinkedIn, nearly 1.3 billion members. And finally, in gaming, we expanded our reach…
…bring their own AI to work in a secure way. Finally, in gaming, Copilot provides a voice-first immersive experience across PC, mobile and our new…
…industry leader boards. And we continue to make great progress with our Phi family of SLMs, which now have been downloaded over 60 million times,…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/microsoft:2025-10-29:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=microsoft:2025-10-29:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP