Microsoft (MSFT): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Oct 29, 2025
On its Oct 29, 2025 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Microsoft said 13 of the 17 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 51 | 54 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Copilot | Yes | 42 | 42 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| M365 / Microsoft 365 | Yes | 29 | 29 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cloud | Yes | 26 | 26 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Azure | Yes | 23 | 25 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 18 | 21 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Windows | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Server | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Teams | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 92%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Gaming | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| CapEx | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 75%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Phi | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Activision | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cybersecurity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stargate | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
25 matches for “Azure”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…roughly 10x-ed our investment. OpenAI has contracted an incremental $250 billion of Azure services, our rev share, exclusive IP rights and API exclusivity for Azure…
…30% per GPU. We also have the most comprehensive digital sovereignty platform. Azure customers in 33 countries are now developing their own cloud and AI…
…to the public sector. On top of this infrastructure, we are building Azure AI Foundry to help customers build their own AI apps and agents.…
…and observability. These kinds of real production scale AI deployments are driving Azure's overall growth. And once again, this quarter, Azure took share. Now let's…
…product features. This was partially offset by ongoing efficiency gains, particularly in Azure and M365 Commercial cloud. Operating expenses increased 5% and 4% in constant…
Where the listed words were said
…only 2 years. We are seeing increasing demand and diffusion of our AI platform and family of Copilots, which is fueling our investments across both…
…of customers and countries. We are innovating rapidly across the family of Copilots spanning the high-value domains of information work, coding, security, science, health and…
…consumer. When it comes to information work, we continue to innovate with Microsoft 365 Copilot. Copilot is becoming the UI for the agentic AI experience.…
…Copilots and AI platform, we are seeing strong momentum across the portfolio. Cloud migrations are accelerating. In data and analytics, Fabric revenue grew 60%, which…
…spend was on short-lived assets, primarily GPUs and CPUs, to support increasing Azure platform demand, growing first-party apps at AI solutions, accelerating R&D by our…
…agent, extending GitHub privatives like PRs, issues, actions to coding agents from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Cognition, xAI as well as OSS and in-house models. GitHub…
…we are excited about all the progress Copilot is making, starting with Windows. Every Windows 11 PC now is an AI PC. Just 2 weeks…
…across workloads, even as we brought more capacity online. In our on-premise server business, revenue increased 1% and was relatively unchanged in constant currency. Results…
…benchmarks that rank it best-in-class. Beyond individual productivity, Copilot is multiplayer, with Teams mode announced this week, you can now invite colleagues into a Copilot…
…and we took share across all categories we serve in security. In LinkedIn, nearly 1.3 billion members. And finally, in gaming, we expanded our reach…
…continued benefit from third-party partnerships that was better than expected. And in gaming, revenue decreased 2% and 3% in constant currency against a strong prior…
…for PP&E was $19.4 billion. As a reminder, the difference between total CapEx and cash paid for PP&E is primarily due to finance leases as…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/microsoft:2025-10-29:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=microsoft:2025-10-29:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP