TSMC (TSM): FY25 Q3 earnings call, Oct 16, 2025
On its Oct 16, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q3), TSMC said 12 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 12 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CapEx | Yes | 16 | 23 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| N2 | Yes | 11 | 14 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Arizona | Yes | 7 | 8 | ✓ | 94%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Smartphone | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Outlook | Yes | 5 | 8 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| A16 | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| HPC | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 3 | 9 | ✓ | 73%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Japan | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 87%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Profitable | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 67%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Automotive | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
9 matches for “Smartphone”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…remained flat quarter-over-quarter to account for 57% of our third quarter revenue. Smartphone increased 19% to account for 30%. IoT increased 20% to account for…
…cluster in Arizona to support the needs of our leading-edge customers in smartphone, AI and HPC applications. Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support…
…full year, we expect a faster ramp in 2026, fueled by both smartphone and HPC AI applications. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also…
…cloud AI is ramping a lot faster than the prior opportunities like smartphones and PCs. Yes, I think the demand for cloud AI is also…
…capital-intensive business, she notes this is very important. But in the past smartphone and PC megatrends; today, it's AI and cloud AI. She is wondering,…
Where the listed words were said
…due to strong shipment in N3 and N5. Regarding cash flow and CapEx. During the third quarter, we generated about TWD 427 billion in cash…
…networks. Volume production is on track for second half '26. We believe N2, N2P, A16 and its derivatives will propel our N2 family to be…
…4% in the latter stages. We will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure. We will…
Okay. So Krish's first question, he noted in the past, in the smartphone megatrend, we talked about the content per phone opportunity for TSMC. So…
…let's turn to our current quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between USD 32.2 billion…
…So Charlie's second question is related around AI demand and specific to China. With the sort of the export control and restriction, his question is,…
…higher level of CapEx spending in 2025, we remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. We also remain committed to a sustainable and…
…we understand there are uncertainties and risk from the potential impact of tariff policies, especially in consumer-related and price-sensitive end market segment. As such, we…
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