Will TSMC say “China”?
TSMC did not say “China” on its Oct 15, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 4 of its last 8 calls: 4, 3, 5, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, TSMC said “China” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 16, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
TSMC
China
- Probability
- 34% · n=1
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
3 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A); 6 by speakers the rule does not count.
…So Charlie's second question is related around AI demand and specific to China. With the sort of the export control and restriction, his question is,…
…or in ASIC, they are all performing well. And so if the China market is not available, but I still think the AI's growth will…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
5 counted (5 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…related and price-sensitive end market segment. While we observe rebate program in China are stimulating some near-term demand upside, we believe this is a short…
…a very hot topic recently about the -- H20 chip shipping to China. I remember 3 months ago, there was another question on this matter,…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
3 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A); 4 by speakers the rule does not count.
…is on the AI demand that although there is a ban in China, on certain AI chips or products that we reiterated our AI accelerated…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | China |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How many times did TSMC say “China” on its last earnings call?
- TSMC did not say “China” on its Oct 15, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 4 of its last 8 calls: 4, 3, 5, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0 times.
- How often does TSMC say “China”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, TSMC said “China” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 16, 2025.
- What is the probability TSMC says “China” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “TSMC: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSM/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tsmc&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tsmc&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP