Will TSMC say “Japan”?
TSMC said “Japan” 1 time on its Oct 15, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 8 calls: 2, 5, 6, 2, 2, 2, 4, 1 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, TSMC said “Japan” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 16, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 86% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
TSMC
Japan
- Probability
- 86% · n=1
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…begin in third quarter 2027, slightly ahead of our previous schedule. In Japan, we are progressing well to our plan to utilize 3 nm in…
…kind of engagement likely to be? Is it similar to what you have done with some of the customers in Japan and ESMC as well?
Not counted under the usual rule (company speakers + operator); this word was not listed here.
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
4 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…3 nm fabs, one in Taiwan, one in Arizona, and one in Japan to support the robust multi-year pipeline of demand for 3 nm technologies.
…we are increasing our mature node capacity through JASM Fab 1 in Japan for CMOS image sensor application and ESMC in Germany for automotive and…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…and volume production will begin in the second half of 2027. In Japan, we now plan to utilize 3 nm technology in our second fab,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | Japan |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How many times did TSMC say “Japan” on its last earnings call?
- TSMC said “Japan” 1 time on its Oct 15, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 8 calls: 2, 5, 6, 2, 2, 2, 4, 1 times.
- How often does TSMC say “Japan”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, TSMC said “Japan” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 16, 2025.
- What is the probability TSMC says “Japan” next time?
- 86%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “TSMC: ‘Japan’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSM/words/japan (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tsmc&word=japan · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tsmc&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP