TSMC (TSM)

EarningsTranscriptsUpdated Oct 24, 2026, 16:50 UTC

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As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 27 word markets on TSMC’s earnings calls since 2025, on 25 different words.

History Wall

1–25 of 25, most settled first

TSMC: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Q4’24Jan '25	Q1’25Apr '25	Q2’25Jul '25	Q3’25Oct '25	Q4’25Jan '26	Q1’26Apr '26	Q2’26Jul '26	Q3’26last call	Trend	Last 8	Scripted	All-time	Probability
Arizona	10 times: Arizona, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	28 times: Arizona, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	7 times: Arizona, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	8 times: Arizona, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	10 times: Arizona, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	5 times: Arizona, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	6 times: Arizona, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	6 times: Arizona, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	falling	8/8100%	8/8100%	24/8130%	94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
CapEx	7 times: CapEx, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	4 times: CapEx, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	21 times: CapEx, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	23 times: CapEx, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	29 times: CapEx, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	32 times: CapEx, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	47 times: CapEx, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	24 times: CapEx, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	rising	8/8100%	8/8100%	80/8199%	97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
A16	7 times: A16, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	7 times: A16, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	13 times: A16, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	5 times: A16, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	5 times: A16, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	1 time: A16, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	0 times: A16, Q2’26 Jul '26	0 times: A16, Q3’26 Oct '26	falling	6/875%	6/875%	13/8116%	68%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Agentic	0 times: Agentic, Q4’24 Jan '25	0 times: Agentic, Q1’25 Apr '25	0 times: Agentic, Q2’25 Jul '25	0 times: Agentic, Q3’25 Oct '25	0 times: Agentic, Q4’25 Jan '26	4 times: Agentic, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	8 times: Agentic, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	7 times: Agentic, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	rising	3/838%	3/838%	3/814%	84%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
AI / Artificial Intelligence10+ times	60 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	36 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	55 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	58 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	47 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	40 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	45 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	48 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	steady	8/8100%	7/888%	24/8130%	91%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Automotive	6 times: Automotive, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	1 time: Automotive, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	2 times: Automotive, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	1 time: Automotive, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	4 times: Automotive, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	3 times: Automotive, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	3 times: Automotive, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	1 time: Automotive, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	falling	8/8100%	8/8100%	52/8164%	87%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
China	4 times: China, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	3 times: China, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	5 times: China, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	3 times: China, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	0 times: China, Q4’25 Jan '26	0 times: China, Q1’26 Apr '26	0 times: China, Q2’26 Jul '26	0 times: China, Q3’26 Oct '26	falling	4/850%	2/825%	57/8170%	34%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Foundry	9 times: Foundry, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	4 times: Foundry, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	0 times: Foundry, Q2’25 Jul '25	6 times: Foundry, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	11 times: Foundry, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	5 times: Foundry, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	9 times: Foundry, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	2 times: Foundry, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	steady	7/888%	6/875%	76/8194%	92%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Growth5+ times	42 times: Growth 5+ times, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	21 times: Growth 5+ times, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	17 times: Growth 5+ times, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	46 times: Growth 5+ times, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	33 times: Growth 5+ times, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	20 times: Growth 5+ times, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	20 times: Growth 5+ times, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	16 times: Growth 5+ times, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	falling	8/8100%	8/8100%	79/8198%	91%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
HPC	10 times: HPC, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	7 times: HPC, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	11 times: HPC, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	4 times: HPC, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	10 times: HPC, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	8 times: HPC, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	4 times: HPC, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	4 times: HPC, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	falling	8/8100%	8/8100%	45/8156%	93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Japan	2 times: Japan, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	5 times: Japan, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	6 times: Japan, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	2 times: Japan, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	2 times: Japan, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	2 times: Japan, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	4 times: Japan, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	1 time: Japan, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	falling	8/8100%	8/8100%	33/8141%	86%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Marginevery call	37 times: Margin, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	25 times: Margin, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	35 times: Margin, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	20 times: Margin, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	15 times: Margin, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	29 times: Margin, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	12 times: Margin, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	19 times: Margin, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	falling	8/8100%	8/8100%	81/81100%	97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
N2	9 times: N2, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	10 times: N2, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	41 times: N2, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	11 times: N2, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	11 times: N2, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	6 times: N2, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	4 times: N2, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	6 times: N2, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	falling	8/8100%	8/8100%	20/8125%	93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Nanometer	22 times: Nanometer, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	24 times: Nanometer, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	34 times: Nanometer, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	10 times: Nanometer, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	21 times: Nanometer, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	0 times: Nanometer, Q1’26 Apr '26	0 times: Nanometer, Q2’26 Jul '26	0 times: Nanometer, Q3’26 Oct '26	falling	5/862%	5/862%	77/8195%	83%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Outlook	8 times: Outlook, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	7 times: Outlook, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	6 times: Outlook, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	5 times: Outlook, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	7 times: Outlook, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	8 times: Outlook, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	15 times: Outlook, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	8 times: Outlook, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	rising	8/8100%	8/8100%	79/8198%	95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Profitable	3 times: Profitable, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	2 times: Profitable, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	1 time: Profitable, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	2 times: Profitable, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	3 times: Profitable, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	1 time: Profitable, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	2 times: Profitable, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	1 time: Profitable, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	falling	8/8100%	8/8100%	31/8138%	84%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Quarterevery call 15+ times	31 times: Quarter 15+ times, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	53 times: Quarter 15+ times, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	48 times: Quarter 15+ times, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	38 times: Quarter 15+ times, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	34 times: Quarter 15+ times, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	38 times: Quarter 15+ times, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	29 times: Quarter 15+ times, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	34 times: Quarter 15+ times, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	steady	8/8100%	8/8100%	81/81100%	84%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Shortage	0 times: Shortage, Q4’24 Jan '25	1 time: Shortage, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	0 times: Shortage, Q2’25 Jul '25	0 times: Shortage, Q3’25 Oct '25	1 time: Shortage, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	0 times: Shortage, Q1’26 Apr '26	5 times: Shortage, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	2 times: Shortage, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	rising	4/850%	1/812%	21/8126%	75%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Smartphone	14 times: Smartphone, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	5 times: Smartphone, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	7 times: Smartphone, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	6 times: Smartphone, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	13 times: Smartphone, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	6 times: Smartphone, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	2 times: Smartphone, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	4 times: Smartphone, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	falling	8/8100%	8/8100%	65/8180%	93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Taiwan3+ times	21 times: Taiwan 3+ times, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	19 times: Taiwan 3+ times, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	6 times: Taiwan 3+ times, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	5 times: Taiwan 3+ times, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	13 times: Taiwan 3+ times, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	5 times: Taiwan 3+ times, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	5 times: Taiwan 3+ times, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	4 times: Taiwan 3+ times, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	falling	8/8100%	8/8100%	41/8151%	85%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Tariff	0 times: Tariff, Q4’24 Jan '25	19 times: Tariff, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	3 times: Tariff, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	1 time: Tariff, Q3’25 Oct '25, counts as said	1 time: Tariff, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	0 times: Tariff, Q1’26 Apr '26	0 times: Tariff, Q2’26 Jul '26	0 times: Tariff, Q3’26 Oct '26	falling	4/850%	4/850%	8/8110%	42%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
A12 / A13	0 times: A12 / A13, Q4’24 Jan '25	1 time: A12 / A13, Q1’25 Apr '25, counts as said	0 times: A12 / A13, Q2’25 Jul '25	0 times: A12 / A13, Q3’25 Oct '25	0 times: A12 / A13, Q4’25 Jan '26	0 times: A12 / A13, Q1’26 Apr '26	9 times: A12 / A13, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	1 time: A12 / A13, Q3’26 Oct '26, counts as said	rising	3/838%	2/825%	18/8122%	62%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Data Center5+ times	2 times: Data Center 5+ times, Q4’24 Jan '25, below the threshold	1 time: Data Center 5+ times, Q1’25 Apr '25, below the threshold	9 times: Data Center 5+ times, Q2’25 Jul '25, counts as said	4 times: Data Center 5+ times, Q3’25 Oct '25, below the threshold	4 times: Data Center 5+ times, Q4’25 Jan '26, below the threshold	5 times: Data Center 5+ times, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	8 times: Data Center 5+ times, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	4 times: Data Center 5+ times, Q3’26 Oct '26, below the threshold	rising	3/838%	2/825%	10/8112%	34%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Memory	8 times: Memory, Q4’24 Jan '25, counts as said	0 times: Memory, Q1’25 Apr '25	0 times: Memory, Q2’25 Jul '25	0 times: Memory, Q3’25 Oct '25	8 times: Memory, Q4’25 Jan '26, counts as said	2 times: Memory, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	8 times: Memory, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	0 times: Memory, Q3’26 Oct '26	steady	4/850%	3/838%	58/8172%	66%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Samsung	0 times: Samsung, Q4’24 Jan '25	0 times: Samsung, Q1’25 Apr '25	0 times: Samsung, Q2’25 Jul '25	0 times: Samsung, Q3’25 Oct '25	0 times: Samsung, Q4’25 Jan '26	5 times: Samsung, Q1’26 Apr '26, counts as said	1 time: Samsung, Q2’26 Jul '26, counts as said	0 times: Samsung, Q3’26 Oct '26	rising	2/825%	1/812%	26/8132%	42%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts

• times said on that call
• counted as said (ring)
• no call
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Trend

how the count moved over these calls

Scripted

calls of the last 8 where it was said in the prepared remarks

All-time

every call on file

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “TSMC (TSM): earnings call word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSM (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/tsmc · words: /api/v1/history?entity=tsmc · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP