TSMC (TSM): FY25 Q3 earnings call, Oct 16, 2025
On its Oct 16, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q3), TSMC said 12 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 12 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CapEx | Yes | 16 | 23 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| N2 | Yes | 11 | 14 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Arizona | Yes | 7 | 8 | ✓ | 94%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Smartphone | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Outlook | Yes | 5 | 8 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| A16 | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| HPC | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 3 | 9 | ✓ | 73%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Japan | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 87%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Profitable | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 67%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Automotive | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
10 matches for “Nanometer”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…and ROE was 37.8%. Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 3-nanometer process technology contributed 23% of wafer revenue in the third quarter, while…
…support from the Taiwan government, we are preparing for multiple phases of 2-nanometer fab in both Hsinchu and Kaohsiung Science Parks. We will continue to…
…to come. Finally, let me talk about our end-to-end A16 status. Our 2-nanometer and A16 technologies lead the industry in addressing sizable demand for energy-efficient…
…puts and takes for gross margin trending going to 2026. Especially, how should we think about the gross margin impact from 2-nanometer ramp for 2026?
…Sorry, if I may, yes, a very quick follow-up. And so on 2-nanometer, would the typical 2% to 3% dilution by new node for the…
Where the listed words were said
…due to strong shipment in N3 and N5. Regarding cash flow and CapEx. During the third quarter, we generated about TWD 427 billion in cash…
…of continuous enhancement, we also introduced N2P as an extension of our N2 family. N2P feature further performance and power benefits on top of N2…
…4% in the latter stages. We will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure. We will…
…remained flat quarter-over-quarter to account for 57% of our third quarter revenue. Smartphone increased 19% to account for 30%. IoT increased 20% to account for…
…let's turn to our current quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between USD 32.2 billion…
…production is on track for second half '26. We believe N2, N2P, A16 and its derivatives will propel our N2 family to be another large…
…to support the needs of our leading-edge customers in smartphone, AI and HPC applications. Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japan…
…So Charlie's second question is related around AI demand and specific to China. With the sort of the export control and restriction, his question is,…
…higher level of CapEx spending in 2025, we remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. We also remain committed to a sustainable and…
…we understand there are uncertainties and risk from the potential impact of tariff policies, especially in consumer-related and price-sensitive end market segment. As such, we…
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