TSMC (TSM): FY25 Q3 earnings call, Oct 16, 2025
On its Oct 16, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q3), TSMC said 12 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 12 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CapEx | Yes | 16 | 23 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| N2 | Yes | 11 | 14 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Arizona | Yes | 7 | 8 | ✓ | 94%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Smartphone | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Outlook | Yes | 5 | 8 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| A16 | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| HPC | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 3 | 9 | ✓ | 73%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Japan | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 87%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Profitable | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 67%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Automotive | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
20 matches for “Margin”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…sequentially to $33.1 billion, slightly ahead of our third quarter guidance. Gross margin increased 0.9 percentage points sequentially to 59.5%, primarily due to cost improvement…
…on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 30.6, gross margin is expected to be between 59% and 61%, operating margin between 49%…
…fourth quarter '25 profitability. Compared to second quarter, our third quarter gross margin increased by 90 basis points sequentially to 59.5%, primarily due to cost…
…better-than-expected cost improvement efforts. We have just guided our fourth quarter gross margin to increase by 50 basis points to 60% at the midpoint, primarily…
…thanks to the company's overall larger scale, we now expect the gross margin dilution from the ramp-up of our overseas fabs to be closer to…
Where the listed words were said
…due to strong shipment in N3 and N5. Regarding cash flow and CapEx. During the third quarter, we generated about TWD 427 billion in cash…
…demand for energy-efficient computing, and almost all innovators are working with TSMC. N2 is well on track for volume production later this quarter. With full…
…4% in the latter stages. We will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure. We will…
…remained flat quarter-over-quarter to account for 57% of our third quarter revenue. Smartphone increased 19% to account for 30%. IoT increased 20% to account for…
…Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near-term demand outlook. We concluded our third quarter with revenue of USD 33.1 billion, slightly…
…and volume production is scheduled for second half '26. We also introduced A16 featuring our best-in-class Super Power Rail or SPR. A16 is best suited…
…to support the needs of our leading-edge customers in smartphone, AI and HPC applications. Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japan…
…So Charlie's second question is related around AI demand and specific to China. With the sort of the export control and restriction, his question is,…
…disciplined and thorough in our capacity planning approach to ensure we deliver profitable growth for our shareholders. Now let me talk about TSMC's global manufacturing…
…we understand there are uncertainties and risk from the potential impact of tariff policies, especially in consumer-related and price-sensitive end market segment. As such, we…
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