TSMC (TSM): FY25 Q3 earnings call, Oct 16, 2025
On its Oct 16, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q3), TSMC said 12 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 12 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CapEx | Yes | 16 | 23 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| N2 | Yes | 11 | 14 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Arizona | Yes | 7 | 8 | ✓ | 94%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Smartphone | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Outlook | Yes | 5 | 8 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| A16 | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| HPC | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 3 | 9 | ✓ | 73%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Japan | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 87%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Profitable | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 67%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Automotive | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
4 matches for “HPC”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…for 74% of wafer revenue. Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC remained flat quarter-over-quarter to account for 57% of our third quarter revenue.…
…to support the needs of our leading-edge customers in smartphone, AI and HPC applications. Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japan…
…we expect a faster ramp in 2026, fueled by both smartphone and HPC AI applications. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced N2P…
…best-in-class Super Power Rail or SPR. A16 is best suited for specific HPC product with compressed signal routes and dense power delivery networks. Volume production…
Where the listed words were said
…due to strong shipment in N3 and N5. Regarding cash flow and CapEx. During the third quarter, we generated about TWD 427 billion in cash…
…puts and takes. And also if Wendell is able to comment specifically, Sunny, sorry if I heard you right, on the N2 dilution impact, correct?
…4% in the latter stages. We will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure. We will…
…capital-intensive business, she notes this is very important. But in the past smartphone and PC megatrends; today, it's AI and cloud AI. She is wondering,…
…let's turn to our current quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between USD 32.2 billion…
…industry for years to come. Finally, let me talk about our end-to-end A16 status. Our 2-nanometer and A16 technologies lead the industry in addressing sizable…
…So Charlie's second question is related around AI demand and specific to China. With the sort of the export control and restriction, his question is,…
…higher level of CapEx spending in 2025, we remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. We also remain committed to a sustainable and…
…we understand there are uncertainties and risk from the potential impact of tariff policies, especially in consumer-related and price-sensitive end market segment. As such, we…
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