TBPN: Episode, Oct 10, 2025
On the Oct 10, 2025 episode of TBPN, 5 of the 30 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 30 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
30 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 30 of 30- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Video | Yes | 11 | 46 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GPT 7+ times | Yes | 7 | 22 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Compute | Yes | 4 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sora | Yes | 3 | 41 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IP / Intellectual Property | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sora 5+ times | No | 3 | 41 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Agent | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AMD | No | 0 | 13 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Browser | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Claude / Gemini / Grok | No | 0 | 15 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Codex | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Copyright / DMCA | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| OpenAI 5+ times | No | 0 | 36 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 10 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Google / Gemini | No | 0 | 70 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Meta | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Meme | No | 0 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nvidia | No | 0 | 21 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TikTok | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AGI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 0 | 19 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DeepSeek | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Privacy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
46 matches for “Video”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…that we see emerge that just weren't possible in previous kinds of video. This is like a fun period because it's all gonna be so…
…very early. Yeah. I think Bill said that I appreciated is this is this is the this is like the GPT 3.5 moment for video.
…know how to go make the g p t four equivalent of video models, and we will do that. And then a lot of these…
…and better, and they will always find new and better things to use it for, and the world will just make ever more amazing videos.
…an incredible job of figuring out how people actually wanna use these video models, what the models need to do. Really, they've approached this as…
Where the listed words were said
…sign me up. That sounds great. Similarly, I would rather watch a video about someone I know than some random AI generated character, which is…
…remember, like, there was a real reaction like this in the early GPT days where people were like, I can't believe anyone reads this. It's,…
…focus of how I spend my days to just go get more compute rather than have to make the compute allocation decisions. Yeah. I still…
…are just not things that could have ever existed without something like Sora or wouldn't have been easy to make. And watching people build those…
…more of them will. Similar thing on other kinds of characters in IP. I can totally imagine a world where our problem in a year…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2025-10-10:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2025-10-10:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP