Elon Musk AMA, Aug 6, 2025
In remarks on Aug 6, 2025, Elon Musk said 1 of the 14 words Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 1 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tesla | No | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ad format | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AGI / Artificial General Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Community Note | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hitler/MechaHitler | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Imagine/Veo 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Macrohard | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mainstream /Legacy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woke | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| xAI 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin/Doge | No | 23%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No public transcript expected. No official public recording known; market data and settlement only. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/elon-musk:2025-08-06:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=elon-musk:2025-08-06:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP