Elon Musk: Saudi-US investment forum, May 13, 2025
At the keynote on May 13, 2025, Elon Musk said 6 of the 17 words Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| A.I / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Humanoid | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| xAI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starlink | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| David Sacks | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DOGE | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Infrastructure | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Neuralink | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saudi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Grok | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mars | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SpaceX | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No public transcript expected. No official public recording known; market data and settlement only. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/elon-musk:2025-05-13:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=elon-musk:2025-05-13:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP