Will “Tariff” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was not said at the Prime Minister's Questions on any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 12, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Tariff
- Probability
- 32% · n=4
- Settled
- 0/4 (0%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I visited them just before we got the deal with America, when tariffs were threatened. That day, I faced the entire workforce, who were very…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “Tariff” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was not said at the Prime Minister's Questions on any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 12, 2025.
- What is the probability “Tariff” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP