Will “Common Sense” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Common Sense” was said at the White House press briefing on 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 19, 2025 (80%), most recently on Mar 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Common Sense
- Probability
- 41% · n=5
- Settled
- 4/5 (80%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…is between crazy people who are trying to rig the game and common sense people who you may have disagreements with from time to time,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…out that every single Democrat on Capitol Hill voted against every single common-sense provision that put more money back into the pockets of the American…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Common Sense |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Common Sense |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Common Sense | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 26, 2025 | Common Sense | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Common Sense | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Common Sense” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Common Sense” was said at the White House press briefing on 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 19, 2025 (80%), most recently on Mar 10, 2026.
- What is the probability “Common Sense” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Common Sense’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/common-sense (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=common%20sense · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP