Will Karoline Leavitt say “Peace”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Peace” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 15, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Peace
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…The President is always open and willing to diplomacy. He is the peace through strength president, after all. After Operation Epic Fury, the conclusion of…
…called for mass protest disruptions. These Republicans cannot know a moment of peace." You have Rep Pressley saying, "We'll see you in the streets." Rep…
…tough negotiations over the past couple of weeks that have now created an opening for a diplomatic solution and long-term peace in the Middle East.
…finalized with Iran, how does the US provide protection to who it's negotiating with to ensure that they can carry out the President's peace plan?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
But the President's preference is always peace. There does not need to be any more death and destruction. But if Iran fails to accept the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | Peace |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Peace”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Peace” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Peace” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Peace’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/peace (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=peace · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP