Will Karoline Leavitt say “Israel”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Israel” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 15, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Israel
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Abraham Accords with several countries in the region, between those countries and Israel. And the President obviously wants to expand on that historic accomplishment from…
…JD Vance, went on this podcast with Joe Rogan yesterday, talked about Israel, in which he said that there are some people within their system…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…sure, between the President and Prime Minister Netanyahu, the United States and Israel, and all of the parties involved, but at this point in time,…
…with Secretary Rubio this morning, and we did express our concerns with Israel, with respect to these holy sites being shut down. We want worshipers…
…the world. And in various examples, the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza, the President has shown a very…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | Israel |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Israel”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Israel” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Israel” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Israel’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/israel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=israel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP