Will Karoline Leavitt say “Hostage”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Hostage” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 15, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Hostage
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that. But obviously, ensuring the return of Americans wrongfully detained or held hostage all over this world remains a priority for him, and he has…
…dangerous and aggressive strategy for one reason to hold the entire world hostage to its terrorist ambitions. The Iranians aimed to use their expanded military…
…do its job and every time Democrats are holding our entire country hostage, picking and choosing which programs and agencies they want to fund just…
…to the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza and the release of the hostages, which there was a lot of criticism that couldn't get done, and…
…terrorists who indiscriminately target civilians and attempt to hold the global economy hostage, and President Trump could be -- should be commended for doing so.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | Hostage |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Hostage”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Hostage” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Hostage” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Hostage’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/hostage (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=hostage · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP