Will Karoline Leavitt say “False / Lie”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “False / Lie” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 13, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
False / Lie
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…uniting around the shared values that make our country great. The deranged lies and smears against the President, his family, his supporters have led crazy…
…that plan as being acceptable to the United States, and that is false. With the President's deadline fast approaching and the United States military completely…
…Despite all of the public posturing you hear from the regime and false reporting, talks are continuing and going well. What is said publicly is,…
…every step of the way, and any reporting otherwise is just completely false. I see him in the room. Again, the President seeks his counsel…
…past time for Democrats in Congress to stop perpetuating the radical and false claim that you can somehow change a child's sex. You cannot. Passing…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | False / Lie |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “False / Lie”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “False / Lie” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “False / Lie” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘False / Lie’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/false-or-lie (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=false%20%2F%20lie · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP