Will Karoline Leavitt say “Election”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Election” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 7, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Election
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…in the Democrat Party. We have literal self-proclaimed communists who are winning elections and who are claiming to be the new leadership of the Democrat…
…a major address to the nation on protecting the integrity of our elections, and we encourage every American to tune in. On Friday, the President…
…With the World Cup, America 250, the 2028 Olympics, and a presidential election all ahead, the Democrat's obstruction is placing an enormous and totally pointless…
…message to American seniors who have a much higher voter participation rate and they're likely to be a key swing vote in the midterm elections?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…why they don't want proof of citizenship to vote in our nation's elections. Again, these are -- these are common sense proposals that are wildly…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Election |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Election”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Election” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Election” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/election (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP