Will Donald Trump say “Incompetent”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Incompetent” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Incompetent
- Probability
- 49% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…off." They did an ad of the mother saying the daughter is incompetent, a liar, a disgusting, unreliable person. My mom would not say that…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Incompetent |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 6 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Incompetent | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (5 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Incompetent”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Incompetent” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 26, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Incompetent” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Incompetent’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/incompetent (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=incompetent · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP