What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “New Jersey” next time?

58%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “New Jersey”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “New Jersey” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “New Jersey” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 6, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jun 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

58%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 06:05 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

New Jersey

Probability: 58% · n=4
Settled: 3/4 (75%)
Last 8 press conferences: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…slightly resentful that Buzz Aldrin had grown up across the river in New Jersey. And half a century later, we leapt to our feet on…