What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Subway / Fare Evasion” next time?

35%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Subway / Fare Evasion”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Subway / Fare Evasion” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 27, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Subway / Fare Evasion” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 5, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jan 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

35%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 27, 2026, 15:25 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Subway / Fare Evasion

Probability: 35% · n=3
Settled: 1/3 (33%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…promises, like building out an army of social workers, greeters on the subway system? And is the plan, as you've become mayor and seen a…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…Yorker deserves to be safe on every single train, on every single subway platform, no matter where they're going across our five boroughs. And we…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…October of 1904, New Yorkers took the very first ride on a subway, sitting in awe as they shot underground across our city. In 1969,…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Holds Press Conference on Ice Shooting in Marble Hill · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…here. This is a residential neighborhood. We are right here by a subway, and the pretext of ICE is, in their words, to keep this…