What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement” next time?

49%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 27, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 4, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jun 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

49%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 27, 2026, 16:54 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement

Probability: 49% · n=3
Settled: 2/3 (67%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Appears on Univision's ¡Despierta América! · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…focus is on New York City, and that's where I've kept my endorsements for this time. But I did have the pleasure of meeting with…