Will Todd Blanche say “National Security”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Todd Blanche did not say “National Security” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Todd Blanche
National Security
- Probability
- 34% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…And my second question is is the AI doomsday talk a real national security issue, or is it a way to put the government in…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | National Security |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 19, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Todd Blanche say “National Security”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Todd Blanche did not say “National Security” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Todd Blanche says “National Security” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Todd Blanche: ‘National Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/todd-blanche/words/national-security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=todd-blanche&word=national%20security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=todd-blanche&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP