Todd Blanche: Press conference, Apr 7, 2026
Kalshi What will Todd Blanche say during his fraud press conference?
Markets
14 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pam / Bondi | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Daycare / Childcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| JD / Vance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP