Will Todd Blanche say “Crime / Criminal”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Todd Blanche said “Crime / Criminal” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 23, 2026 (25%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (2 episodes, 1 press briefing; Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Todd Blanche
Crime / Criminal
- Probability
- 55% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (2 episodes, 1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the time, but it's never -- it's never too much in reducing crime in this country. Under President Trump's leadership, crime is the lowest it…
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Crime / Criminal |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Todd Blanche say “Crime / Criminal”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Todd Blanche said “Crime / Criminal” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 23, 2026 (25%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Todd Blanche says “Crime / Criminal” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Todd Blanche: ‘Crime / Criminal’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/todd-blanche/words/crime-or-criminal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=todd-blanche&word=crime%20%2F%20criminal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=todd-blanche&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP