Will Tim Walz say “Iran”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Tim Walz said “Iran” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (50%), most recently on Mar 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
43%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tim Walz
Iran
- Probability
- 43% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Tim Walz yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Tim Walz say “Iran”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tim Walz said “Iran” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (50%), most recently on Mar 26, 2026.
- What is the probability Tim Walz says “Iran” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tim Walz: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/tim-walz/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tim-walz&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tim-walz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP