Tim Walz: Press conference, Mar 10, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Tim Walz holds a Press Conference
Markets
11 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 71%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investigate / Investigating / Investigation | Yes | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Billion | Yes | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-WALZ26MAR10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP