Tim Walz: Speech, Jan 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Tim Walz say during his statewide address?
Markets
14 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Investigate / Investigating / Investigation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Protest / Protester | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Race / Racism / Racist | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare / Child Care | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Learing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billion | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWALZMENTION-26JAN15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP