Tim Walz: Hearing, Mar 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Tim Walz say during the Oversight Fraud hearing?
Markets
18 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Migrant | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Whistleblower | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Daycare / Childcare | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Racist / Racism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billion | Yes | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Islamophobia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| YouTube / YouTuber | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Learing | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWALZMENTION-26APR01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP