Tim Walz: Press conference, Jan 7, 2026
Kalshi What will Tim Walz say during his press conference?
Markets
14 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Campaign / Election | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Race / Racism / Racist | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Childcare / Child Care | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taxpayer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shirley | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWALZMENTION-26JAN07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP