Tim Walz: Debate, Oct 1, 2024
Polymarket What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?
Markets
23 words · 13 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abortion | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Teacher | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Concept | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dog | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Football | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gun | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala Harris 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obamacare/Affordable Care Act | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 30+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Coach | Yes | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Weird | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abortion 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Haitian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Helene | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala Harris 30+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Racist | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venture Capitalist | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yale | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Couch | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tampon | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-tim-walz-say-during-the-vp-debate · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP