What is the probability “Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional” is said at the Political debates next time?

70%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any candidate.

Will “Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional” be said at the next Political debates?

Name: Political debates: “Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional” was said at the Political debates on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (100%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 70% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

70%from settlement history only · n=2counts: any candidate

Last 10: 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: any candidate

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 18:26 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Political debates

Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional

Probability: 70% · n=2
Settled: 2/2 (100%)

Next listing counts: any candidate

We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Georgia Senate debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Georgia Senate debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during Michigan Senate debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Pennsylvania Governor's Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Iowa Senate debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the SC Republican Senate Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Mar 18, 2026	Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional	Kalshi	Yes
Feb 18, 2026	Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional	Kalshi	Yes

Questions

How often is “Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional” said at the Political debates?: As of Oct 26, 2026, “Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional” was said at the Political debates on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (100%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
What is the probability “Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional” is said at the Political debates next time?: 70%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: any candidate.

Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/constitution-or-constitutional-or-unconstitutional (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=constitution%20%2F%20constitutional%20%2F%20unconstitutional · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP