Will Marco Rubio say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Marco Rubio did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 31, 2026.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; May 5, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Marco Rubio
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…why do we have a blockade? We have a blockade because they shut down the straits. So, I don't know which members of Congress you're…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Marco Rubio say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Marco Rubio did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 31, 2026.
- What is the probability Marco Rubio says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Marco Rubio: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/marco-rubio/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=marco-rubio&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=marco-rubio&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP