Will Hakeem Jeffries say “ICE / National Guard”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Hakeem Jeffries said “ICE / National Guard” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 5, 2026 (67%), most recently on Mar 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 62% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Feb 15, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Hakeem Jeffries
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- 62% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…and Alex Pretti. We know and the American people clearly know that ICE is totally out of control and they need to be reined in,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 1, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 5, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Hakeem Jeffries say “ICE / National Guard”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Hakeem Jeffries said “ICE / National Guard” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 5, 2026 (67%), most recently on Mar 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Hakeem Jeffries says “ICE / National Guard” next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Hakeem Jeffries: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/hakeem-jeffries/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=hakeem-jeffries&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=hakeem-jeffries&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP