Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 16, 2026

Wed, Sep 16EpisodeMachine transcriptLemonade Stand

On the Sep 16, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 3 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.

Updated

Markets

8 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Money Yes6060✓88%n=9 from settlement history–
Red Yes66✓63%n=12 from settlement history–
Japan Yes11✓54%n=2 from settlement history–
AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ timesNo11✓65%n=4 from settlement history–
China / Chinese No00✓90%n=11 from settlement history–
Trump 10+ timesNo00✓65%n=4 from settlement history–
Blue No00✓56%n=12 from settlement history–
Experimental No00✓27%n=4 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

quotes of at most 25 words

Machine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.

Machine-attributed. Speaker turns are labelled by a model, not the publisher.

6 matches for “Red”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.

Speaker not labelled5:55

…the bottom end, there needs to be a black figure, not a red one, you know? And I think Bernie never got that one across,…

Speaker not labelled21:39

…the results over the last however many years, it's pretty much still Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, like at the top of these standings and McLaren,…

Speaker not labelled42:17

…it was a marketing tool. Therefore, it worked. It's the same for Red Bull. Red Bull, I don't know for how many years the team…

Speaker not labelled1:07:20

…when I came to the States, I came to the States with Red Bull to open up their NASCAR team. I decided it's time now…

Speaker not labelled1:31:34

…guys, I did a podcast with them, with Brian and Matt from Red Flag, and we started Wanker Hours, you know, the podcast, you know.

Where the listed words were said

Speaker not labelled“Money” · 5:36

…Because, you know, the United States, I live here 20 years, so I know how it works here. It just works if everybody makes money.

Speaker not labelled“Japan” · 49:05

…you can see the front wheel lifting. This is like a Shinkansen in Japan, but you just have no windshield, and you're on a bike.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-16:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-16:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP